Sea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable environments show a rise of around 20 centimeters per century (2 mm/year). A tide gauge is a device for measuring sea level and detecting tsunamis

Changes in sea level since the end of the last glacial episode

Sea-level rise is an increase in sea level. Mean sea level (MSL is the average (mean height of the Sea, with reference to a suitable reference surface Multiple complex factors may influence this change.

Sea-level has risen about 130 meters (400 ft) since the peak of the last ice age about 18,000 years ago. An ice age is a period of long-term reduction in the Temperature of the Earth 's surface and atmosphere resulting in an expansion of continental Ice sheets Most of the rise occurred before 6,000 years ago. From 3,000 years ago to the start of the 19th century sea level was almost constant, rising at 0. 1 to 0. 2 mm/yr. The Millimetre ( American spelling: millimeter, symbol mm) is a unit of Length in the Metric system, equal to ^[1] Since 1900 the level has risen at 1 to 2 mm/yr; since 1993 satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of rise of 3. This article is about artificial satellites For natural satellites also known as moons see Natural satellite. Launched in 1992 TOPEX/Poseidon was a joint satellite mission between NASA, the U 1 ± 0. 7 mm yr–1 ^[2]. Church and White (2006) found a sea-level rise from January 1870 to December 2004 of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea-level rise of 1. 7 ± 0. 3 mm per yr and a significant acceleration of sea-level rise of 0. 013 ± 0. 006 mm per year. If this acceleration remains constant, then the 1990 to 2100 rise would range from 280 to 340 mm,^[3]. Sea-level rise can be a product of global warming through two main processes: thermal expansion of sea water and widespread melting of land ice. effects of Global warming on the environment and human life are numerous varied accelerating and taking scientists studying global warming by surprise Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the Thermal Expansion is the tendency of matter to change in Volume in response to a change in temperature Seawater is Water from a Sea or Ocean. On average seawater in the world's oceans has a Salinity of about 3 Ice is a Solid phase, usually crystalline, of a Non-metalic substance that is liquid or gas at Room temperature, such as Ammonia ^[4] Global warming is predicted to cause significant rises in sea level over the course of the twenty-first century.

Overview of sea-level change

Local and eustatic sea level

Water cycles between ocean, atmosphere, and glaciers. An ocean (from Greek, ''Okeanos'' (Oceanus) is a major body of saline water, and a principal component of the Hydrosphere. Temperature and layers The temperature of the Earth's atmosphere varies with altitude the mathematical relationship between temperature and altitude varies among five "Glacial" and "Glaciation" redirect here For the geological periods see Glacial period.

Local mean sea level (LMSL) is defined as the height of the sea with respect to a land benchmark, averaged over a period of time (such as a month or a year) long enough that fluctuations caused by waves and tides are smoothed out. Ocean surface waves are Surface waves that occur on the Free surface of the Ocean. Characteristics A tide is a repeated cycle of sea level changes in the following stages Over several hours the water rises or advances up a beach in the flood One must adjust perceived changes in LMSL to account for vertical movements of the land, which can be of the same order (mm/yr) as sea level changes. Some land movements occur because of isostatic adjustment of the mantle to the melting of ice sheets at the end of the last ice age. Isostasy (Greek isos = "equal" stásis = "standstill" is a term used in Geology to refer to the state of gravitational equilibrium between the The mantle is a part of an Astronomical object. The interior of the Earth, similar to the other Terrestrial planets, is Chemically divided An ice sheet is a mass of Glacier Ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50000 km² (20000 mile²) The weight of the ice sheet depresses the underlying land, and when the ice melts away the land slowly rebounds. Post-glacial rebound (sometimes called continental rebound, isostatic rebound, isostatic adjustment or post-ice-age isostatic recovery) Atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean temperature changes also can affect LMSL. An ocean current is continuous directed movement of Ocean water. Temperature is a physical property of a system that underlies the common notions of hot and cold something that is hotter generally has the greater temperature

“Eustatic” change (as opposed to local change) results in an alteration to the global sea levels, such as changes in the volume of water in the world oceans or changes in the volume of an ocean basin. Mean sea level (MSL is the average (mean height of the Sea, with reference to a suitable reference surface Hydrologically an oceanic basin may be anywhere on Earth that is covered by Seawater, but geologically ocean basins are large geologic basins

Short term and periodic changes

There are many factors which can produce short-term (a few minutes to 14 months) changes in sea level.

Longer term changes

Sea-level changes and relative temperatures

Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, leading to long-term changes in eustatic sea level. Seiche is also a French term for a type of Cuttlefish (Sepiida An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth 's crust that creates Seismic waves Earthquakes are recorded with a Seismometer A tsunami ((tsuːˈnɑːmi is a series of waves created when The two primary influences are temperature (because the volume of water depends on temperature), and the mass of water locked up on land and sea as fresh water in rivers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and sea ice. Water is a common Chemical substance that is essential for the survival of all known forms of Life. Mass is a fundamental concept in Physics, roughly corresponding to the Intuitive idea of how much Matter there is in an object Freshwater is a word that refers to bodies of water such as Ponds lakes rivers and streams containing low concentrations of dissolved Salts and other Total dissolved A lake (from Latin lacus) is a Terrain feature (or Physical feature) a body of Liquid on the surface of a world that is localized to the A polar ice cap is a high- Latitude region of a Planet or moon that is covered in Ice. Sea ice is formed from Ocean water that freezes Because the Oceans consist of Saltwater, this occurs at about -1 Over much longer geological timescales, changes in the shape of the oceanic basins and in land/sea distribution will affect sea level. The geologic time scale is a chronologic schema (or idealized Model) relating Stratigraphy to time that is used by Geologists and other

Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps indicate a contribution to sea-level rise of 0. whitechuck glacier 2006jpg|right|thumb|320px|The same view as seen in 2006 where this branch of glacier retreated 1 2 to 0. 4 mm/yr averaged over the 20th century.

Glaciers and ice caps

Each year about 8 mm (0. 3 inch) of water from the entire surface of the oceans falls into the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets as snowfall. Greenland, the largest Island in the world is located between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean, northeast of Canada and northwest "Snowfall" redirects here For other uses see Snow (disambiguation or Snowfall (disambiguation. If no ice returned to the oceans, sea level would drop 8 mm every year. Although approximately the same amount of water returns to the ocean in icebergs and from ice melting at the edges, scientists do not know which is greater — the ice going in or the ice coming out. An iceberg is a large piece of freshwater Ice that has broken off from a snow-formed Glacier or Ice shelf and is floating in open water The difference between the ice input and output is called the mass balance and is important because it causes changes in global sea level. See also Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Crucial to the survival of a Glacier is its mass balance, the difference between accumulation

Ice shelves float on the surface of the sea and, if they melt, to first order they do not change sea level. An ice shelf is a thick floating platform of ice that forms where a Glacier or Ice sheet flows down to a Coastline and onto the ocean surface Likewise, the melting of the northern polar ice cap which is composed of floating pack ice would not significantly contribute to rising sea levels. The North Pole, also known as the Geographic North Pole or Terrestrial North Pole, is subject to the caveats explained below defined as the point in the northern An ice cap is an Ice mass that covers less than 50 000 km² of land area (usually covering a highland area Drift ice is Sea ice that floats on the surface of the water in cold regions as opposed to Fast ice, which is attached ("fastened" to a shore Because they are fresh, however, their melting would cause a very small increase in sea levels, so small that it is generally neglected. It can however be argued that if ice shelves melt it is a precursor to the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.

• Scientists lack knowledge of changes in terrestrial storage of water. Between 1910 and 1990, such changes may have contributed from –1. 1 to +0. 4 mm/yr.
• If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0. "Glacial" and "Glaciation" redirect here For the geological periods see Glacial period. Earth's polar regions are the areas of the globe surrounding the poles also known as frigid zones. The Antarctic Peninsula is the northernmost part of the mainland of Antarctica, and almost the only part of that continent that extends outside the Antarctic Circle 5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a vast body of ice covering 171 million km² roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. 2 m of sea-level rise, and melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61. The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the two Polar ice caps of the Earth. 1 m of sea level rise. ^[5] The collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5-6 m. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet ( WAIS) is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West (or Lesser Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica ^[6]
• The snowline altitude is the altitude of the lowest elevation interval in which minimum annual snow cover exceeds 50%. The snow line is the point above which or poleward of which snow and ice cover the ground throughout the year Altitude is the Elevation of a point or object from a known level or datum (plural data This ranges from about 5,500 metres above sea-level at the equator down to sea level at about 70° N&S latitude, depending on regional temperature amelioration effects. Latitude, usually denoted symbolically by the Greek letter phi ( Φ) gives the location of a place on Earth (or other planetary body north or south of the Permafrost then appears at sea level and extends deeper below sea level polewards. This article is about frozen ground For other meanings see Permafrost (disambiguation.
• As most of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lie above the snowline and/or base of the permafrost zone, they cannot melt in a timeframe much less than several millennia; therefore it is likely that they will not, through melting, contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century. A millennium (pl millennia) is a period of Time equal to one thousand Years (from Latin la mille, thousand and la annum They can, however, do so through acceleration in flow and enhanced iceberg calving.
• Climate changes during the 20th century are estimated from modelling studies to have led to contributions of between –0. Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences 2 and 0. 0 mm/yr from Antarctica (the results of increasing precipitation) and 0. 0 to 0. 1 mm/yr from Greenland (from changes in both precipitation and runoff). Surface runoff is a term used to describe when soil is infiltrated to full capacity and excess Water, from Rain, Snowmelt, or other sources flows
• Estimates suggest that Greenland and Antarctica have contributed 0. 0 to 0. 5 mm/yr over the 20th century as a result of long-term adjustment to the end of the last ice age.

The current rise in sea level observed from tide gauges, of about 1. 8 mm/yr, is within the estimate range from the combination of factors above^[7] but active research continues in this field. The uncertainty in the terrestrial storage term is particularly large.

Since 1992 the TOPEX/Poseidon ^[8] and Jason 1 ^[9] satellite programs have provided measurements of sea level change. Launched in 1992 TOPEX/Poseidon was a joint satellite mission between NASA, the U Jason-1 is a Satellite oceanography mission to monitor global Ocean circulation, study the ties between the Ocean and the Atmosphere, improve Current data are available. ^[10] The data show a mean sea level increase of 2. 9±0. 4 mm/yr. However, because significant short-term variability in sea level can occur, this recent increase does not necessarily indicate a long-term acceleration in sea level changes.

Geological influences

Comparison of two sea level reconstructions during the last 500 Myr. The scale of change during the last glacial/interglacial transition is indicated with a black bar. Note that over most of geologic history, long-term average sea level has been significantly higher than today

At times during Earth's long history, continental drift has arranged the land masses into very different configurations from those of today. The history of Earth covers approximately 46 billion years (4567000000 years from Earth ’s formation out of the Solar nebula to the present Continental drift is the movement of the Earth 's Continents relative to each other When there were large amounts of continental crust near the poles, the rock record shows unusually low sea levels during ice ages, because there was lots of polar land mass upon which snow and ice could accumulate. The continental crust is the layer of granitic, Sedimentary, and Metamorphic rocks which form the Continents and the areas of shallow seabed During times when the land masses clustered around the equator, ice ages had much less effect on sea level. However, over most of geologic time, long-term sea level has been higher than today (see graph above). Only at the Permian-Triassic boundary ~250 million years ago was long-term sea level lower than today. The Permian is a geologic period and system that extends from 299 The Triassic is a geologic period and system that extends from about 251 to 199 Ma (million years ago Long term changes in sea level are the result of changes in the oceanic crust, with a downward trend expected to continue in the very long term. Oceanic crust is the part of Earth's Lithosphere that surfaces in the Ocean basins ^[11]

During the glacial/interglacial cycles over the past few million years, sea level has varied by somewhat more than a hundred metres. This is primarily due to the growth and decay of ice sheets (mostly in the northern hemisphere) with water evaporated from the sea.

The Mediterranean Basin's gradual growth as the Neotethys basin, begun in the Jurassic, did not suddenly affect ocean levels. The Mediterranean Basin refers to the lands around and surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea. The Jurassic is a geologic period and system that extends from about Ma (million years ago to  Ma that is from the end of the Triassic to the beginning While the Mediterranean was forming during the past 100 million years, the average ocean level was generally 200 meters above current levels. However, the largest known example of marine flooding was when the Atlantic breached the Strait of Gibraltar at the end of the Messinian Salinity Crisis about 5. The Strait of Gibraltar ( Arabic: مضيق جبل طارق Spanish: Estrecho de Gibraltar) is the Strait that connects the Atlantic The Messinian Salinity Crisis, also referred to as the Messinian Event, is a period when the Mediterranean Sea evaporated partly or completely dry during the 2 million years ago. This restored Mediterranean sea levels at the sudden end of the period when that basin had dried up, apparently due to geologic forces in the area of the Strait. Geology (from Greek γη gê, "earth" and λόγος Logos, "speech" lit

Past changes in sea level

Changes in sea level during the last 9,000 years

The sedimentary record

For generations, geologists have been trying to explain the obvious cyclicity of sedimentary deposits observed everywhere we look. Isostasy (Greek isos = "equal" stásis = "standstill" is a term used in Geology to refer to the state of gravitational equilibrium between the Plate tectonics and hotspots Divergent plate boundaries At the A delta is a Landform where the mouth of a River flows into an Ocean, Sea, Estuary, Lake or another river Groundwater is Water located beneath the Ground surface in Soil pore spaces and in the Fractures of lithologic formations Petroleum ( L petroleum, from Greek πετρέλαιον, lit A hydrosphere (from Greek ύδωρ - hydor, " Water " + σφαίρα - sphaira, " Sphere " The asthenosphere (from an invented Greek a + ' sthenos "without strength" and Greek word σφαίρα (sphera meaning globe is the Rotation period Earth's rotation period relative to the Sun (its mean solar day is 86400 Seconds of mean solar time An equinox is the event of the Sun passing over the Earth's equator in its annual cycle Gravitation is a natural Phenomenon by which objects with Mass attract one another Sediment is any particulate matter that can be transported by fluid flow and which eventually is deposited as a layer of solid particles on the bed or bottom of a body of The prevailing theories hold that this cyclicity primarily represents the response of depositional processes to the rise and fall of sea level. In the rock record, geologists see times when sea level was astoundingly low alternating with times when sea level was much higher than today, and these anomalies often appear worldwide. For instance, during the depths of the last ice age 18,000 years ago when hundreds of thousands of cubic miles of ice were stacked up on the continents as glaciers, sea level was 120 m (390 ft) lower, locations that today support coral reefs were left high and dry, and coastlines were miles farther basinward from the present-day coastline. An ice age is a period of long-term reduction in the Temperature of the Earth 's surface and atmosphere resulting in an expansion of continental Ice sheets The coast is defined as the part of the land adjoining or near the Ocean. It was during this time of very low sea level that there was a dry land connection between Asia and Alaska over which humans are believed to have migrated to North America (see Bering Land Bridge). The Bering land bridge was a Land bridge roughly 1000 miles (1600 km north to south at its greatest extent which joined present-day Alaska and eastern Siberia

However, for the past 6,000 years (a few centuries before the first known written records), the world's sea level has been gradually approaching the level we see today. Narmer was an Egyptian Pharaoh who ruled in the 31st century BC. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6 m higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. The Bahamas, officially the Commonwealth of The Bahamas, is an independent sovereign English -speaking country consisting of two thousand Cays and There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3 meters above today's sea level along the southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. Coral reefs are Aragonite structures produced by living organisms found in marine waters with little to no nutrients in the water West Caicos is an island in the Turks and Caicos Islands. West Caicos has an area of, and has been uninhabited for over a century These once-submerged reefs and nearby paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow the reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.

Estimates

See IPCC TAR, figure 11. 4 for a graph of sea level changes over the past 140,000 years. ^[12]

• Sea-level rise estimates from satellite altimetry since 1992 (about 2. 8 mm/yr) exceed those from tide gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an increase over the last decades, variability, or problems with satellite calibration.
• Church and White (2006) report an acceleration of SLR since 1870. ^[3] This is a revision since 2001, when the TAR stated that measurements have detected no significant acceleration in the recent rate of sea level rise.
• Based on tide gauge data, the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century lies in the range 0. A tide gauge is a device for measuring sea level and detecting tsunamis 8 to 3. 3 mm/yr, with an average rate of 1. 8 mm/yr. ^[13]
• Recent studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinae in Italy indicate that sea level stayed fairly constant from a few hundred years AD to a few hundred years ago. Caesarea (קיסריה Qesarya قيسارية pronounced Kaysaria) is a town in Israel on the outskirts of Caesarea Maritima, the ancient port A piscina or sacrarium is a shallow basin placed near the Altar of a Church, used for washing the communion vessels
• Based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of about 0. 5 mm/yr over the last 6,000 years and at an average rate of 0. 1 to 0. 2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years.
• Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120 m (averaging 6 mm/yr) as a result of melting of major ice sheets. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM refers to the time of maximum extent of the Ice sheets during the last Glaciation (the Würm or Wisconsin glaciation) approximately A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP (excluding the rapid rise from 15-6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr.
• A significant event was Meltwater Pulse 1A (mwp-1A), when sea level rose approximately 20 m over a 500 year period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Recent studies suggest the primary source was meltwater from the Antarctic, perhaps causing the south-to-north cold pulse marked by the Southern Hemisphere Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, which preceded the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas
• Relative sea level rise at specific locations is often 1-2 mm/yr greater or less than the global average. Southern Hemisphere is the half of a Planet that is South of the Equator —the word hemisphere literally means 'half ball' The Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal (HMCR is the name given to a cooling event in South America between 11400 and 10200 14C years BP. Northern Hemisphere is the half of a Planet that is North of the Equator —the word hemisphere literally means 'half ball' The Younger Dryas Stadial, named after the alpine / tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, and also referred to as the Big Freeze, was a brief (approximately Along the US mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, for example, sea level is rising approximately 3 mm/yr

U. S. Tide Gauge Measurements

U. S. Sea Level Trends 1900-2003

Tide gauges in the United States show considerable variation because some land areas are rising and some are sinking. The United States of America —commonly referred to as the For example, over the past 100 years, the rate of sea level rise varies from about an increase of 0. 36 inches (9. 1 mm) per year along the Louisiana Coast (due to land sinking), to a drop of a few inches per decade in parts of Alaska. The rate of sea level rise increased during the 1993-2003 period compared with the longer-term average (1961-2003), although it is unclear whether the faster rate reflects a short-term variation or an increase in the long-term trend. ^[14]

Amsterdam Sea Level Measurements

The longest running sea-level measurements are recorded at Amsterdam, in the Netherlands - most of which lies beneath sea level, hence the name. Amsterdam (pronounced) is the capital and largest city of the Netherlands, located in the province of North Holland in the west The Netherlands ( Dutch:, ˈnedərlɑnt is the European part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, which consists of the Netherlands the Netherlands Records from 1700 onwards can be found at http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/longrecords/longrecords.html. Since 1850, a rise of approx 1. 5mm/year is shown here.

Australian Sea Level Change

The London Royal Society calculates net sea level rise in Australia at 1mm/yr^[15] - an important result for the Southern Hemisphere. The National Tidal Center also graphs 32 gauges, some since 1880, for the entire coastline^[16]

Future sea level rise

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report predicted that by 2100, global warming will lead to a sea level rise of 9 to 88 cm. Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the At that time no significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century had been detected. ^[17] Subsequently, Church and White found acceleration of 0. 013 ± 0. 006 mm/yr². ^[3]

These sea level rises could lead to difficulties for shore-based communities in the next centuries: for example, many major cities such as London and New Orleans already need storm-surge defenses, and would need more if sea level rose, though they also face issues such as sinking land. London ( ˈlʌndən is the capital and largest urban area in the United Kingdom. New Orleans (nʲuːˈɔrliənz nʲuːˈɔrlənz French: La Nouvelle-Orléans) is a major United States port city and the largest city in Louisiana ^[18]

Future sea level rise, like the recent rise, is not expected to be globally uniform (details below). Some regions show a sea-level rise substantially more than the global average (in many cases of more than twice the average), and others a sea level fall. ^[19] However, models disagree as to the likely pattern of sea level change. ^[20]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change results

The results from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) sea level chapter (convening authors John A. Church and Jonathan M. Gregory) are given below. The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by an intergovermental panel Dr John A Church is an expert on Sea level and its changes. He was Co-convening Lead Author (with Jonathan M Jonathan M Gregory is a climate modeller working on mechanisms of Global and large-scale change in Climate and sea level on multidecadal and longer timescales

The sum of these components indicates a rate of eustatic sea level rise (corresponding to a change in ocean volume) from 1910 to 1990 ranging from –0. 8 to 2. 2 mm/yr, with a central value of 0. 7 mm/yr. The upper bound is close to the observational upper bound (2. 0 mm/yr), but the central value is less than the observational lower bound (1. 0 mm/yr), i. e. , the sum of components is biased low compared to the observational estimates. The sum of components indicates an acceleration of only 0. 2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from –1. 1 to +0. 7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century. The estimated rate of sea-level rise from anthropogenic climate change from 1910 to 1990 (from modeling studies of thermal expansion, glaciers and ice sheets) ranges from 0. Anthropogenic effects processes objects or materials are those that are derived from Human activities as opposed to those occurring in Natural environments without 3 to 0. 8 mm/yr. It is very likely that 20th century warming has contributed significantly to the observed sea-level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice. ^[21]

A common perception is that the rate of sea-level rise should have accelerated during the latter half of the 20th century, but tide gauge data for the 20th century show no significant acceleration. A tide gauge is a device for measuring sea level and detecting tsunamis Estimates obtained are based on AOGCMs for the terms directly related to anthropogenic climate change in the 20th century, i. e. , thermal expansion, ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps. . . The total computed rise indicates an acceleration of only 0. 2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from -1. 1 to +0. 7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea-level rise during the 20th century. ^[23] The sum of terms not related to recent climate change is -1. 1 to +0. 9 mm/yr (i. e. , excluding thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the ice sheets due to 20th century climate change). This range is less than the observational lower bound of sea level rise. Hence it is very likely that these terms alone are an insufficient explanation, implying that 20th century climate change has made a contribution to 20th century sea level rise. ^[7]

Uncertainties and criticisms regarding IPCC results

• Tide records with a rate of 180 mm/century going back to the 19th century show no measurable acceleration throughout the late 19th and first half of the 20th century. The IPCC attributes about 60 mm/century to melting and other eustatic processes, leaving a residual of 120 mm of 20th century rise to be accounted for. Global ocean temperatures by Levitus et al are in accord with coupled ocean/atmosphere modelling of greenhouse warming, with heat-related change of 30 mm. The Greenhouse effect refers to the change in the Thermal equilibrium temperature of a planet or moon by the presence of an Atmosphere containing gas that absorbs Melting of polar ice sheets at the upper limit of the IPCC estimates could close the gap, but severe limits are imposed by the observed perturbations in Earth rotation. (Munk 2002)
• By the time of the IPCC TAR, attribution of sea-level changes had a large unexplained gap between direct and indirect estimates of global sea-level rise. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1. 5–2. 0 mm/yr, whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea-level rise, namely mass and volume change, are significantly below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0. 5 mm/yr and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. One study confirmed tide gauge data is correct, and concluded there must be a continental source of 1. 4 mm/yr of fresh water. (Miller 2004)
• From (Douglas 2002): "In the last dozen years, published values of 20th century GSL rise have ranged from 1. 0 to 2. 4 mm/yr. In its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC discusses this lack of consensus at length and is careful not to present a best estimate of 20th century GSL rise. By design, the panel presents a snapshot of published analysis over the previous decade or so and interprets the broad range of estimates as reflecting the uncertainty of our knowledge of GSL rise. We disagree with the IPCC interpretation. In our view, values much below 2 mm/yr are inconsistent with regional observations of sea-level rise and with the continuing physical response of Earth to the most recent episode of deglaciation. "
• The strong 1997-1998 El Niño caused regional and global sea level variations, including a temporary global increase of perhaps 20 mm. The IPCC TAR's examination of satellite trends says the major 1997/98 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event could bias the above estimates of sea-level rise and also indicate the difficulty of separating long-term trends from climatic variability. ^[23]

Glacier contribution

It is well known that glaciers are subject to surges in their rate of movement with consequent melting when they reach lower altitudes and/or the sea. "Glacial" and "Glaciation" redirect here For the geological periods see Glacial period. The contributors to Annals of Glaciology [2], Volume 36 [3] (2003) discussed this phenomenon extensively and it appears that slow advance and rapid retreat have persisted throughout the mid to late Holocene in nearly all of Alaska's glaciers. Historical reports of surge occurrences in Iceland's glaciers go back several centuries. Thus rapid retreat can have several other causes than CO2 increase in the atmosphere.

The results from Dyurgerov show a sharp increase in the contribution of mountain and subpolar glaciers to sea level rise since 1996 (0. 5 mm/yr) to 1998 (2 mm/yr) with an average of approx. 0. 35 mm/yr since 1960. ^[24]

Of interest also is Arendt et al,^[25] who estimate the contribution of Alaskan glaciers of 0. 14±0. 04 mm/yr between the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s increasing to 0. 27 mm/yr in the middle and late 1990s.

Greenland contribution

Krabill et al. ^[26] estimate a net contribution from Greenland to be at least 0. Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat meaning "Land of the Greenlanders" Grønland is a self-governing Danish Province located between the 13 mm/yr in the 1990s. Joughin et al. ^[27] have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ between 1997 and 2003. Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq (in Greenlandic is a large Outlet glacier in West Greenland This is Greenland's largest-outlet glacier; it drains 6. 5% of the ice sheet, and is thought to be responsible for increasing the rate of sea level rise by about 0. 06 millimeters per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th century rate of sea level increase. ^[28] In 2004, Rignot et al. ^[29] estimated a contribution of 0. 04±0. 01 mm/yr to sea level rise from southeast Greenland.

Rignot and Kanagaratnam^[30] produced a comprehensive study and map of the outlet glaciers and basins of Greenland. "Glacial" and "Glaciation" redirect here For the geological periods see Glacial period. They found widespread glacial acceleration below 66 N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and that the ice sheet loss rate in that decade increased from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra 0. 25 to 0. 55 mm/yr of sea level rise.

In July 2005 it was reported^[31] that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland's east coast, was moving towards the sea three times faster than a decade earlier. Kangerdlugssuaq is around 1000 m thick, 7. 2 km (4. 5 miles) wide, and drains about 4% of the ice from the Greenland ice sheet. A mile is a unit of Length, usually used to measure Distance, in a number of different systems including Imperial units United States Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in 1988 and 1996 showed it moving at between 5 and 6 km/yr (3. 1 to 3. 7 miles/yr) (in 2005 it was moving at 14 km/yr (8. 7 miles/yr).

According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, climate models project that local warming in Greenland will exceed 3° Celsius during this century. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( ACIA) is a study describing the ongoing Climate change in the Arctic and its The Celsius Temperature scale was previously known as the centigrade scale. Also, ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over several millennia, resulting in a global sea level rise of about seven meters. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a vast body of ice covering 171 million km² roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. ^[32]

Effects of snowline and permafrost

The snowline altitude is the altitude of the lowest elevation interval in which minimum annual snow cover exceeds 50%. This ranges from about 5500 metres above sea-level at the equator down to sea-level at about 65° N&S latitude, depending on regional temperature amelioration effects. Permafrost then appears at sea-level and extends deeper below sea-level pole-wards. The depth of permafrost and the height of the ice-fields in both Greenland and Antarctica means that they are largely invulnerable to rapid melting. Greenland Summit is at 3200 metres, where the average annual temperature is minus 32 °C. So even a projected 4 °C rise in temperature leaves it well below the melting point of ice. The melting point of a solid is the temperature range at which it changes state from solid to Liquid. Frozen Ground 28, December 2004, has a very significant map of permafrost affected areas in the Arctic. The continuous permafrost zone includes all of Greenland, the North of Labrador, NW Territories, Alaska north of Fairbanks, and most of NE Siberia north of Mongolia and Kamchatka. Continental ice above permafrost is very unlikely to melt quickly. As most of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lie above the snowline and/or base of the permafrost zone, they cannot melt in a timeframe much less than several millennia; therefore they are unlikely to contribute significantly to sea-level rise in the coming century.

Polar ice

The sea level will rise above its current level if more polar ice melts. However, compared to the heights of the ice ages, today there are very few continental ice sheets remaining to be melted. It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully melted, would contribute more than 60 metres of sea level rise, and Greenland would contribute more than 7 metres. Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula might contribute about 0. 5 metres. While the latter figure is much smaller than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly (within the coming century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1500 years to fully deglaciate at the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower. ^[5] However, this calculation does not account for the possibility that as meltwater flows under and lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly towards the sea. ^[33][34]

In 2002, Rignot and Thomas^[35] found that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets were losing mass, while the East Antarctic ice sheet was probably in balance (although they could not determine the sign of the mass balance for The East Antarctic ice sheet). Kwok and Comiso (J. Climate, v15, 487-501, 2002) also discovered that temperature and pressure anomalies around West Antarctica and on the other side of the Antarctic Peninsula correlate with recent Southern Oscillation events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO; commonly referred to as simply El Niño) is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon

In 2004 Rignot et al. ^[29] estimated a contribution of 0. 04±0. 01 mm/yr to sea level rise from South East Greenland. In the same year, Thomas et al. ^[36] found evidence of an accelerated contribution to sea level rise from West Antarctica. The data showed that the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was discharging 250 cubic kilometres of ice every year, which was 60% more than precipitation accumulation in the catchment areas. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet ( WAIS) is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West (or Lesser Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica A catchment is any device or structure that captures Water. This alone was sufficient to raise sea level at 0. 24 mm/yr. Further, thinning rates for the glaciers studied in 2002-2003 had increased over the values measured in the early 1990s. The bedrock underlying the glaciers was found to be hundreds of meters deeper than previously known, indicating exit routes for ice from further inland in the Byrd Subpolar Basin. Bedrock is the native consolidated rock underlying the surface of a terrestrial planet usually the Earth. Thus the West Antarctic ice sheet may not be as stable as has been supposed.

In 2005 it was reported that during 1992-2003, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 18 mm/yr while West Antarctica showed an overall thinning of 9 mm/yr. associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0. 12±0. 02 mm/yr. ^[37]

Effects of sea level rise

Based on the projected increases stated above, the IPCC TAR WG II report notes that current and future climate change would be expected to have a number of impacts, particularly on coastal systems. ^[38] Such impacts may include increased coastal erosion, higher storm-surge flooding, inhibition of primary production processes, more extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and groundwater characteristics, increased loss of property and coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss of life, loss of nonmonetary cultural resources and values, impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality, and loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions. Coastal erosion is the wearing away of land or the removal of Beach or Dune Sediments by Wave action tidal currents, wave currents See also Primary production (economics Primary production is the production of Organic compounds from atmospheric or aquatic Carbon dioxide, Water quality is the physical chemical and biological characteristics of Water in relationship to a set of standards A habitat (which is Latin for "it inhabits" is an Ecological or environmental area that is inhabited by a particular Species. Culture (from the Latin cultura stemming from colere, meaning "to cultivate" generally refers to patterns of human activity and the symbolic Agriculture refers to the production of goods through the growing of plants and fungi and the raising of domesticated Animals The study of agriculture Aquaculture is the farming of freshwater and saltwater organisms including Molluscs Crustaceans and aquatic plants Soil, often typeset as SOiL, is a four piece rock band from Chicago Illinois United States founded by Shaun Glass Tom Schofield Tim King and Adam Zadel Tourism is Travel for Recreational or Leisure purposes The World Tourism Organization defines tourists as people who "travel Recreation or fun is the expenditure of time in a manner designed for therapeutic refreshment of one's Body or Mind. Transport or transportation is the movement of people and goods from one place to another

There is an implication that many of these impacts will be detrimental. The report does, however, note that owing to the great diversity of coastal environments; regional and local differences in projected relative sea level and climate changes; and differences in the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems, sectors, and countries, the impacts will be highly variable in time and space and will not necessarily be negative in all situations. An ecosystem is a natural unit consisting of all plants animals and micro-organisms( Biotic factors in an area functioning together with all of the non-living physical (

Statistical data on the human impact of sea level rise is scarce. A study in the April, 2007 issue of Environment and Urbanization reports that 634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9. 1 m) of sea level. The study also reported that about two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas. A city is an Urban area with a large Population and a particular Administrative, Legal, or Historical status

Are islands "drowning"?

IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small island states are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by both thermal expansion and ocean volume. An island (ˈaɪlənd or isle (/ˈaɪl/ is any piece of land that is completely surrounded by water in two dimensions above high tide and isolated from other significant Relative sea level rise (mostly caused by subsidence) is currently causing substantial loss of lands in some deltas. In Geology, Engineering, and Surveying, subsidence is the motion of a surface (usually the Earth's surface as it shifts downward relative to Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven to have directly resulted in environmental, humanitarian, or economic losses to small island states, but the IPCC and other bodies have found this a serious risk scenario in coming decades. ^[39]

Many media reports have focused the island nations of the Pacific, notably the Polynesian island of Tuvalu, which based on more severe flooding events in recent years, was thought to be "sinking" due to sea level rise. The Pacific Ocean is the largest of the Earth 's Oceanic divisions Tuvalu, formerly known as the Ellice Islands, is a Polynesian Island nation located in the Pacific Ocean midway between Hawaii and ^[40] A scientific review in 2000 reported that based on University of Hawaii gauge data, Tuvalu had experienced a negligible increase in sea-level of 0. The University of Hawaii, formally the University of Hawaii System and popularly known as UH, is a public co-educational college and university system that confers 07 mm a year over the past two decades, and that ENSO had been a larger factor in Tuvalu's higher tides in recent years. El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO; commonly referred to as simply El Niño) is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon ^[41] A subsequent study by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania, however, adjusted for ENSO effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking). El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO; commonly referred to as simply El Niño) is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon Hunter concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of about 1. 2 mm per year. ^[42][43] The recent more frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to an erosional loss of land during and following the actions of 1997 cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli. Erosion is the carrying away or displacement of solids ( Sediment, Soil, rock and other particles usually by the agents of currents such as wind ^[44]

Reuters has reported other Pacific islands are facing a severe risk including Tegua island in Vanuatu. Tegua is an island in Vanuatu 's Torres Islands chain About 100 residents of Tegua were evacuated by the government because rising sea levels were flooding their island Vanuatu, officially the Republic of Vanuatu ( French: République de Vanuatu, Bislama: Ripablik blong Vanuatu) is an Island Claims that Vanuatu data shows no net sea level rise, are not substantiated by tide gauge data. Vanuatu tide gauge data show a net rise of ~50 mm from 1994-2004. Linear regression of this short time series suggests a rate of rise of ~7 mm/y, though there is considerable variability and the exact threat to the islands is difficult to assess using such a short time series. In statistics linear regression is a form of Regression analysis in which the relationship between one or more Independent variables and another variable called

Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to rising sea level. Adaptation to global warming consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. ^[45]

Satellite sea level measurement

Satellite Measurement of Sea Level

Sea level rise estimates from satellite altimetry are 3. This article is about artificial satellites For natural satellites also known as moons see Natural satellite. 1 +/- 0. 4 mm/yr for 1993-2003 (Leuliette et al. (2004)). This exceeds those from tide gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an increase over the last decades; variability; true differences between satellites and tide gauges; or problems with satellite calibration. Calibration is the process of establishing the relationship between a measuring device and the units of measure ^[23]

Since 1992 the NASA/CNES TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-1 satellite programs have provided measurements of sea level change. Launched in 1992 TOPEX/Poseidon was a joint satellite mission between NASA, the U Jason-1 is a Satellite oceanography mission to monitor global Ocean circulation, study the ties between the Ocean and the Atmosphere, improve The current data are available at http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ and http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/. The data show a mean sea level increase of 2. 8±0. 4 mm/yr. This includes an apparent increase to 3. 7±0. 2 mm/yr during the period 1999 through 2004. ^[46] Satellites ERS-1 (July 17, 1991-March 10, 2000),^[47] ERS-2 (April 21, 1995-),^[48] and Envisat (March 1, 2002-) also have sea surface altimeter components but are of limited use for measuring global mean sea level due to less detailed coverage. Events 180 - Twelve inhabitants of Scillium in North Africa are executed for being Christians Year 1991 ( MCMXCI) was a Common year starting on Tuesday (link will display full calendar of the Gregorian Calendar. Events 241 BC - First Punic War: Battle of the Aegates Islands - The Romans sink the Carthaginian fleet bringing 2000 ( MM) was a Leap year that started on Saturday of the Common Era, in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. Events 753 BC - Romulus and Remus found Rome ( traditional date) Year 1995 ( MCMXCV) was a Common year starting on Sunday. Events of 1995 Events 86 BC - Lucius Cornelius Sulla, at the head of a Roman Republic army enters in Athens, removing the Tyrant See also 2002 (disambiguation Year 2002 ( MMII) was a Common year starting on Tuesday of the Gregorian calendar.

• TOPEX/Poseidon began their series of measurements in 1992, and the scientific mission was ended in October 2005.
• Jason-1, launched December 7, 2001, has now taken over the mission, and is flying the same groundtrack. Events 43 BC - Marcus Tullius Cicero assassinated 1696 - Connecticut Route 108, one of the oldest highways Year 2001 ( MMI) was a Common year starting on Monday according to the Gregorian calendar.

Because significant short-term variability in sea level can occur, extracting the global mean sea level information is complex. Also, the satellite data has a much shorter record than tidal gauges, which have been found to require years of operation to extract trends.

There is a range of distances involved.

• 140 to 320 mm: Increased height of sea level within 1997-1998 El Niño Pacific region. ^[49]
• 140 mm: Range of typical regional sea level variations (±70 mm). ^[50]
• 100 mm: Accuracy of ERS-1 radar altimeter. ^[51]
• 43 mm: Accuracy of ocean surface height calculations with T/P. ^[52]
• 30 to 40 mm: Accuracy of TOPEX and POSEIDON-1 radar altimeters, which measure distance to ocean surface.
• 20 to 30 mm: Accuracy of determination of T/P satellite orbital height (laser ranging, doppler shifts, GPS).
• 20 mm: Accuracy of Jason-1 POSEIDON-2 radar altimeter. ^[53]
• 7-14 mm: Global mean sea level surge during 1997-1998 El Niño period. ^[54]
• Several mm: Precision of global mean sea level measurement after averaging 10-day coverage. ^[55]
• 10 mm: Stability of T/P orbit heights over 4 years. ^[56]
• 2. 8 ±0. 4 mm: Average annual global sea level rise since 1992 according to T/P.

There apparently is a problem with the ERS-2 altimeter. Mean sea level changes were compared between satellites for 60°N and 60°S from May 1995 to June 1996:^[57]

• -4. 7 ±1. 5 mm/yr for ERS-1
• -5. 6 ±1. 3 mm/yr for TOPEX
• +9. 0 ±2. 1 mm/yr for ERS-2

Ongoing altimeter comparisons are available at: http://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/altimetry/intercomp.html
The various readings there are of current sea level variations, not global sea level, so the comparison is only in differences between the values. That data is of variations in centimeters; further processing is done to reach the millimeter-level resolution needed for mean sea level studies.

Comparisons of T/P with Pacific island tide gauge data show that the monthly mean deviations are accurate at the level of 20 mm. ^[58]

Also, it should be noted that since satellite results are partially calibrated against tide gauge readings, they are not an entirely independent source. ^[59]

The strong 1997-1998 El Niño event "has imprinted a strong signature on the sea surface height field in the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. This signal will be tracked over the next decade as the eastern boundary manifestation of this El Niño event propagates westward toward the Kuroshio Extension. "^[60]

Other satellites:

• Geosat Follow-On is a U. S. Navy altimeter mission that was launched on February 10, 1998. Events 1355 - The St Scholastica's Day riot breaks out in Oxford, England, leaving 63 scholars and perhaps 30 locals dead Year 1998 ( MCMXCVIII) was a Common year starting on Thursday (link will display full 1998 Gregorian calendar) On November 29, 2000, the Navy accepted the satellite as operational. Events 1777 - San Jose California, is founded as el Pueblo de San José de Guadalupe 2000 ( MM) was a Leap year that started on Saturday of the Common Era, in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. During its mission life, the satellite will be retained in the GEOSAT Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) orbit (800 km altitude, 108 deg inclination, 0. 001 eccentricity, and, 100 min period). This 17-day Exact Repeat Orbit (ERO) retraces the ERM ground track to +/-1 km. As with the original GEOSAT ERM, the data will be available for ocean science through NOAA/NOS and NOAA/NESDIS. Radar Altimeter - single frequency (13. 5 GHz) with 35 mm height precision. Note that the GPS receiver is not functional.
  • Geosat Follow-On @ NOAA/LSA^[61]
  • NAVY GEOSAT FOLLOW-ON (GFO) ALTIMETRY MISSION^[62]
  • NASA WFF Geosat Follow-On^[63]

Other sea level analysis:

• Sea Level Analysis from ERS Altimetry^[64]
• Ssalto/Duacs multimission altimeter products:^[65] Combined current data from Topex/Poseidon, Geosat Follow On, Jason-1 and Envisat.

See also

• 8.2 kiloyear event
• Antarctic Cold Reversal
• Climate of Antarctica
• Marine regression
• Older Peron transgression
• Retreat of glaciers since 1850

External links

• Sea Level Rise:Understanding the past - Improving projections for the future
• Sea Level Changes in the Past, Present and in the Near-Future Global Aspects Observations versus Models. The 82 kiloyear event is the term that climatologists have adopted for a sudden decrease in global temperatures that occurred approximately 8200 years before the present or The Antarctic Cold Reversal ( ACR) was an important episode of cooling in the Climate history of the Earth during the deglaciation at the close of the last Ice The Climate of Antarctica is the coldest on earth the lowest Temperature ever recorded on earth being −89 Marine regression is a geological process occurring when areas of submerged seafloor are exposed above the sea level The Older Peron transgression was a period of unusually warm Climate during the Holocene Epoch. whitechuck glacier 2006jpg|right|thumb|320px|The same view as seen in 2006 where this branch of glacier retreated 1 IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference. Retrieved on 10 February 2005.
• Sea Level Changes: The Maldives Project Freed From Condemnation to become Flooded. IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference. Retrieved on 10 February 2005.
• Providing new homes for climate exiles Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, 2006
• New perspectives for the future of the Maldives Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Göran Possnert, 2004
• Physical Agents of Land Loss: Relative Sea Level. An Overview of Coastal Land Loss: With Emphasis on the Southeastern United States. Retrieved on 14 February 2005.
• Changes in the Earth's shorelines during the past 20 kyr caused by the deglaciation of the Late Pleistocene ice sheets, from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level
• Includes picture of sea level for past 20 kyr based on barbados coral record
• Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation
• Sea level rise FAQ (1997)
• The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
• The GLOSS Station Handbook
• Interactive sea level map
• Sea Level Rise Reports. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level ( PSMSL established in 1933, is a repository for Tide gauge data used in the measurement of long-term sea level change US Environmental Protection Agency website.
• The Sinking of Tuvalu
• Center for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets - Maps, Animations, GIS Layers
• Tides and Sea Level Rise Model

References

Footnotes